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Statistics
Monetary Policy

Macroeconomic survey of the Bank of Russia

Survey results: April 20251

2021
(actual)		 2022
(actual)		 2023
(actual)		 2024
(actual)		 2025 2026 2027
CPI
(%, Dec to Dec of the previous year)		 8.4
 11.9
 7.4
 9.5
 7.1
(7.0)		 4.8
(4.8)		 4.0
(4.0)
CPI
(% year-on-year, average for the year)		 6.7
 13.8
 5.9
 8.4
 9.5
(9.4)		 5.6
(5.5)		 4.3
(4.3)
Key rate
(% per annum, average for the year, including weekends)		 5.7
 10.6
 9.9
 17.5
 20.0
(20.1)		 14.3
(14.3)		 9.7
(10.0)
GDP
(%, YoY)		 5.9
 -1.4
 4.1
 4.3
 1.6
(1.7)		 1.7
(1.8)		 2.0
(2.0)
Unemployment rate2
(%, average for the year)		 4.8
 3.9
 3.2
 2.5
 2.5
(2.5)		 2.8
(2.7)		 2.9
(2.9)
Nominal wages
(%, YoY, average for the year)		 11.5
 14.1
 14.6
 18.3
 12.3
(12.6)		 7.9
(8.1)		 7.0
(7.0)
Consolidated budget balance
(% of GDP for the respective year)		 0.8
 -1.4
 -2.3
 -1.6
 -1.5
(-1.2)		 -1.1
(-1.0)		 -1.0
(-1.0)
Exports of goods and services
(billions of US dollars per year)		 550
 641
 465
 475
 453
(458)		 460
(464)		 472
(475)
Imports of goods and services
(billions of US dollars per year)		 377
 347
 380
 381
 380
(382)		 388
(393)		 399
(402)
USD / RUB rate
(RUB per USD, average for the year)		 73.6
 67.5
 84.7
 92.4
 95.2
(98.5)		 102.4
(104.0)		 106.7
(107.0)
Oil price for tax purposes3
(US dollars per barrel, average for the year)		 69
 76
 63
 68
 60
(65)		 60
(65)		 60
(65)
Indicators calculated based on responses received:
Real key rate4
(% per annum, average for the year, including weekends)		 -2.7
 -1.3
 2.5
 8.0
 12.6
(12.8)		 9.1
(9.1)		 5.4
(5.7)
GDP
(cumulative level, 2021 = 100)		 100.0
 98.6
 102.6
 107.1
(106.9)		 108.7
(108.6)		 110.6
(110.5)		 112.5
(112.5)
Real wages5
(%, YoY, average for the year)		 4.5
 0.3
 8.2
 9.1
 2.9
(3.2)		 2.3
(2.5)		 2.4
(2.7)
Real wages
(cumulative level, 2021 = 100)		 100.0
 100.3
 108.5
 118.4
 121.9
(122.2)		 124.8
(125.0)		 127.3
(127.3)
Trade balance
(billions of US dollars per year)		 173
 293
 86
 94
 76
(73)		 70
(73)		 73
(73)
Nominal neutral key rate
(% per annum)		 Median 8.0
(8.0)		 The level of the key rate at which monetary policy keeps inflation and inflation expectations on target over the long term and also keeps GDP at its potential.
Central tendency 10-90% 7.0-9.8
(7.0-9.4)
Long-term GDP
(%, YoY)		 Median 1.8
(1.8)		 Expected average potential GDP growth rates in 2028 - 2032.
Central tendency 10-90% 1.2-2.4
(1.2-2.3)

1 In parentheses are the results of the March 2025 survey.
2 The March 2025 results are the median forecasts based on survey participants’ responses on the year-end unemployment rate (as the average of the year-end values for the reporting and the previous year).
3 Russian oil price used for tax purposes and published monthly on the official website of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation.
4 The results are the median forecasts based on survey participants’ responses on the key rate (average for the year) and CPI (Dec to Dec).
5 The results are the median forecasts based on survey participants’ responses on the nominal wages and average for the year CPI.
Survey Dates: 11-15 April, 2025.
Calculation methodology: The survey results are the median of the 26 forecasts of economists from various organizations taking part in the survey.

The ranges of analysts’ forecasts for the next years (see the shaded areas in the charts) have narrowed for most indicators, the ranges for exports, imports, trade balance, and oil price for tax purposes have widened. At the same time, the ranges for GDP, exports, imports, trade balance, and USD/RUB exchange rate are widening by the end of the forecast period.

  • Inflation: No significant changes. Inflation forecast for 2025 has been raised to 7.1% (+0.1 pp compared to the March survey). Forecasts for 2026–2027 are unchanged. Analysts expect that inflation will return to the target in 2027.
  • Key rate: No significant changes – expectations for the average key rate in 2025 and 2027 have slightly decreased. The median forecast is 20.0% per annum (-0.1 pp) in 2025, and 14.3% per annum in 2026. The forecast for the end of the horizon is 9.7% per annum (-0.3 pp). It remains higher than the median estimate of the neutral key rate (8.0% per annum). Real key rate, calculated based on analysts’ forecasts, is 12.6% (-0.2 pp) in 2025, 9.1% in 2026, and 5.4% (-0.3 pp) in 2027.
  • GDP: Forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been lowered by 0.1 pp, the forecast for 2027 has not changed: 1.6%, 1.7%, and 2.0%, respectively. The median estimate of the long-term GDP growth rate is unchanged at 1.8%. According to analysts, the GDP growth in 2027 to the 2021 level will total +12.5%.
  • Unemployment rate: No significant changes. Analysts expect the average unemployment to remain at 2.5% in 2025, rise to 2.8% (+0.1 pp) in 2026 and to 2.9% by the end of the forecast horizon.
  • Nominal wages: Analysts slightly lowered their forecast for nominal wage growth in 2025–2026. They expect nominal wages to grow by 12.3% (-0.3 pp) in 2025, followed by a deceleration to 7.9% (-0.2 pp) in 2026, and to 7.0% by the end of the forecast horizon. Calculations based on analysts’ forecasts of nominal wages and average CPI suggest that real wages will increase by 2.9% in 2025, 2.3% in 2026, and 2.4% in 2027. By the end of the forecast horizon, real wages will be 27.3% higher than in 2021.
  • Consolidated budget balance: Analysts expect higher consolidated budget deficit in 2025 and 2026 — 1.5% of GDP in 2025 (up by 0.3 pp) and 1.1% of GDP in 2026 (up by 0.1 pp). The forecast for 2027 has remained unchanged at 1.0% of GDP.
  • Exports of goods and services: Forecasts have been lowered slightly: $453 billion (-$5 billion) in 2025, $460 billion (-$4 billion) in 2026, and $472 billion (-$3 billion) in 2027. This is 14% ($78 billion) lower than exports in 2021.
  • Imports of goods and services: Forecasts have also been lowered slightly: $380 billion (-$2 billion) in 2025, $388 billion (-$5 billion) in 2026, $399 billion (-$3 billion) in 2027. This is 6% ($22 billion) higher than imports in 2021.
  • USD/RUB exchange rate: Analysts expect a stronger ruble over the entire forecast horizon. They expect the average exchange rate to reach 95.2 rubles per dollar in 2025, 102.4 rubles per dollar in 2026, and 106.7 rubles per dollar in 2027 (the ruble in 2025–2027 is 0.3–3.4% stronger compared to the March survey).
  • Oil price for tax purposes: Forecasts have been lowered — in 2025–2027 the yearly average price of Russian oil for tax purposes will be $60 per barrel (-$5 per barrel compared to the March survey).

CPI

%, Dec. to Dec. of the previous year
Created with Highcharts 10.3.3Chart context menu2017201820192020202120222023202420252026202702468101214161820222426
в—ЏForecast range
в—ЏTheВ 10В toВ 90th percentile range
в—ЏMedian February 2025
в—ЏMedian March 2025
в—ЏMedian April 2025

Key rate

% per annum, average for the year, including weekends

Real key rate

% per annum, annual average nominal key rate less CPI Dec. to Dec
Created with Highcharts 10.3.3Chart context menu2017201820192020202120222023202420252026202702468101214161820222426
в—ЏForecast range
в—ЏTheВ 10В toВ 90th percentile range
в—ЏMedian February 2025
в—ЏMedian March 2025
в—ЏMedian April 2025
Created with Highcharts 10.3.3Chart context menu20172018201920202021202220232024202520262027-4-2024681012141618
в—ЏForecast range
в—ЏTheВ 10В toВ 90th percentile range
в—ЏMedian February 2025
в—ЏMedian March 2025
в—ЏMedian April 2025

GDP

%, YoY

GDP

cumulative level, 2021 = 100
Created with Highcharts 10.3.3Chart context menu20172018201920202021202220232024202520262027-6-4-20246
в—ЏForecast range
в—ЏTheВ 10В toВ 90th percentile range
в—ЏMedian February 2025
в—ЏMedian March 2025
в—ЏMedian April 2025
Created with Highcharts 10.3.3Chart context menu201720182019202020212022202320242025202620279095100105110115120
в—ЏForecast range
в—ЏTheВ 10В toВ 90th percentile range
в—ЏMedian February 2025
в—ЏMedian March 2025
в—ЏMedian April 2025

Unemployment rate

%, average for the year

Nominal wages

%, YoY, average for the year
Created with Highcharts 10.3.3Chart context menu20172018201920202021202220232024202520262027234567
в—ЏForecast range
в—ЏTheВ 10В toВ 90th percentile range
в—ЏMedian February 2025
в—ЏMedian March 2025
в—ЏMedian April 2025
Created with Highcharts 10.3.3Chart context menu2017201820192020202120222023202420252026202702468101214161820222426
в—ЏForecast range
в—ЏTheВ 10В toВ 90th percentile range
в—ЏMedian February 2025
в—ЏMedian March 2025
в—ЏMedian April 2025

Real wages

cumulative level, 2021 = 100

Consolidated budget balance

% of GDP for the respective year
Created with Highcharts 10.3.3Chart context menu201720182019202020212022202320242025202620278090100110120130140150160
в—ЏForecast range
в—ЏTheВ 10В toВ 90th percentile range
в—ЏMedian February 2025
в—ЏMedian March 2025
в—ЏMedian April 2025
Created with Highcharts 10.3.3Chart context menu20172018201920202021202220232024202520262027-5-4-3-2-1012345
в—ЏForecast range
в—ЏTheВ 10В toВ 90th percentile range
в—ЏMedian February 2025
в—ЏMedian March 2025
в—ЏMedian April 2025

Exports of goods and services

billions of US dollars per year

Imports of goods and services

billions of US dollars per year
Created with Highcharts 10.3.3Chart context menu20172018201920202021202220232024202520262027350400450500550600650
в—ЏForecast range
в—ЏTheВ 10В toВ 90th percentile range
в—ЏMedian February 2025
в—ЏMedian March 2025
в—ЏMedian April 2025
Created with Highcharts 10.3.3Chart context menu20172018201920202021202220232024202520262027200250300350400450500
в—ЏForecast range
в—ЏTheВ 10В toВ 90th percentile range
в—ЏMedian February 2025
в—ЏMedian March 2025
в—ЏMedian April 2025

Trade balance

billions of US dollars per year
Created with Highcharts 10.3.3Chart context menu20172018201920202021202220232024202520262027050100150200250300
в—ЏForecast range
в—ЏTheВ 10В toВ 90th percentile range
в—ЏMedian February 2025
в—ЏMedian March 2025
в—ЏMedian April 2025

USD / RUB rate

RUB per USD, average for the year

Oil price for tax purposes

US dollars per barrel, average for the year
Created with Highcharts 10.3.3Chart context menu201720182019202020212022202320242025202620275060708090100110120130140150
в—ЏForecast range
в—ЏTheВ 10В toВ 90th percentile range
в—ЏMedian February 2025
в—ЏMedian March 2025
в—ЏMedian April 2025
Created with Highcharts 10.3.3Chart context menu20172018201920202021202220232024202520262027404550556065707580859095100
в—ЏForecast range
в—ЏTheВ 10В toВ 90th percentile range
в—ЏMedian February 2025
в—ЏMedian March 2025
в—ЏMedian April 2025

* Note: the upper and lower boundaries of the filled area on the graphs are equal to the maximum and minimum forecast.
The brighter area in the center is the 10 to 90th percentile range.

The next survey will be carried out from 23 to 27 May 2025.

Survey participants

Bloomberg Economics Р’Р­Р‘.Р Р¤ ИНП Р РђРќ Россельхозбанк РЈРљ «РџРµСЂРІР°СЏ»
АКРА Газпромбанк Институт Гайдара Сбербанк КИБ ФИНАМ
Астра Управление активами ДОМ.Р Р¤ НИФИ Минфина Сбербанк ЦМИ «Р¦РµРЅС‚СЂ развития» НИУ Р’РЁР­
Альфа Банк Евразийский Банк Развития (ЕАБР) Промсвязьбанк Телеграм-канал Helicopter Macro ЦМАКП
Банк ДОМ.Р Р¤ ИБ РЎРёРЅР°СЂР° Райффайзенбанк Телеграм-канал Truevalue Эксперт Р Рђ
БКС РњРёСЂ РёРЅРІРµСЃС‚иций ИʠРЕГИОН Ренессанс Капитал Телеграм-канал Твердые цифры ЮниКредит банк
Р’РўР‘ ИНГ Р‘анк Евразия Росбанк Рў-Инвестиции

Additional materials

Survey calendar
Aggregated survey results
Questionnaire
Department responsible for publication: Monetary Policy Department
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Last updated on: 16.04.2025
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